Scenarios for the Future of Europe
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Since the global financial crisis in 2008, some of the most senior political figures in Europe have predicted the EU's collapse or disintegration. A succession of crises (the euro, migration, Brexit, rule-of-law, Covid-19, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, inflation, the Hamas-Israel war) as well as the rise of euro-skeptical populism appeared to vindicate such predictions. But others claim that European integration has always advanced through crises and see a bright future for Europe through a "green recovery" from Covid-19, a robust and united response to external threats, the building of a digital single market, and a robust industrial policy, as well as the EU's regulatory power, extending to AI, enabling Europe to compete more effectively with global rivals. Some see a growing EU role in foreign policy, security and defense, including transatlantic engagement and a strategic response to the rise of China and to Russian aggression. A major EU role in the reconstruction of Ukraine (and Gaza?) could reinforce this more positive narrative. In this course students work together in teams, in dialogue with the instructor, to develop scenarios projecting alternative futures for the EU in the period until 2035.
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